Reports » Global Microcell Base Station Market Analysis and Forecast, 2013-2017 – 2nd Edition

Global Microcell Base Station Market Analysis and Forecast, 2013-2017 – 2nd Edition

This report provides a comprehensive analysis for the global wireless microcell base station market.

Publication date: 2013.05.10

Publisher: EJL Wireless Research

2013.05.10

Format:

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Report Description

Our analysis within this report focuses ONLY on the outdoor microcell base station market defined as base stations having 5W-10W RF output power per TRx and not products that are in the 250mW to 1W per transceiver (TRx) category which we define as picocells. Some in the industry call these 5-10W products metrocells or picocells. We also include carrier grade 802.11ac outdoor only WiFi access points in our analysis as this technology will be strategically important in many markets globally as an alternative to W-CDMA and LTE microcells.

Our key findings in this analysis are:

  • 10%MMPR microcell BTS market of x million units 50% MMPR microcell BTS market of x million units
  • WiFi-only microcell BTS will account for over 50% of the total market opportunity in unit volumes by 2017
  • Total microcell BTS revenues will reach USD$3 billion by 2017
  • Microcell BTS market expected to begin high volume commercial shipments in 2014
  • Asia Pacific region represents x% of global microcell BTS opportunity by 2017

Our conservative estimates using a 10% microcell/macrocell penetration ratio (MMPR) for major cities across 78 countries reveals a CUMULATIVE potential of 1.3 million microcell base stations for 3G/4G/Wi-Fi types. The MMPR analysis DOES NOT include Wi-Fi only access points. We will be referring to Wi-Fi as WiFi for the remainder of this report. Actual penetration and deployments could be well below this figure as advances in LTE-A technology (3GPP Rel 10) increase throughput and capacity of the macrocell network layer. We do not think it is realistic that the 100% MMRP level would ever be reached for any mobile network and merely present this as an upper limit in our analysis.

Our market trends and assumptions are the following:

  • Mobile broadband data traffic continues to exponentially increase on mobile networks, growing at nearly 2-3x each year
  • Macrocell base station capacity only incrementally improves by 10-150% over the next few years
  • Penetration of data-centric Firefox OS, Android OS and Apple iOS smartphones across all economic tiers increases globally
  • LTE and LTE-A network deployments continue through 2017
  • Carrier-grade WiFi microcells will support 802.11ac technology only

We have also assumed a tiered approach to our MMPR analysis, ranging from a ratio of 3:1 up to 9:1 depending on the population density within a city. Each city in every country for every mobile operator will have a different approach and deployment. We have made generalized assumptions across different countries and regions globally.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 1: OVERALL MICROCELL MARKET POTENTIAL
1.1 Microcells vs. RRUs within a Heterogeneous Network Topology
1.2 Macrocell BTS Evolution within the Heterogeneous Network
1.3 Mono-Vendor (Iub) vs. Multi-Vendor (Iuh) Heterogeneous Networks
1.4 Carrier Grade Outdoor WiFi 802.11ac
1.5 Third Party mBTS Hosting Model
1.6 Substantial Market Opportunity Still Awaits Industry
1.7 Microcell BTS Forecast 2013-2017
1.8 Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast 2013-2017
1.9 Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology
1.10 New LTE Frequency Bands: 3.5GHz/700MHz
1.11 LTE Release 10/11- LTE-Advanced and its Impact on Microcell BTS

CHAPTER 2: MICROCELL DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS

CHAPTER 3: GEOGRAPHICAL MARKET SHARE
Asia Pacific and Europe Driving Initial Microcell BTS Market Demand
3.1 North America
3.2 Latin America
3.3 Western Europe
3.4 Eastern Europe
3.5 Africa.60
3.6 The Middle East
3.7 Asia Pacific

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Global Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Region (Units) 6
Table 2: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 6
Table 3: Global Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Region (Units) 16
Table 4: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units). 21
Table 5: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 21
Table 6: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 21
Table 7: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 22
Table 8: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 22
Table 9: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 22
Table 10: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 24
Table 11: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 24
Table 12: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 24
Table 13: Global Microcell BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2013-2017 (Units). 38
Table 14: Global Microcell BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 38
Table 15: Global Microcell BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 38
Table 16: North America Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units). 40
Table 17: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units) 40
Table 18: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 19: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth)41
Table 20: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 43
Table 21: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 43
Table 22: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 43
Table 23: North America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Table 24: North America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 44
Table 25: North America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 44
Table 26: Latin America Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units) 45
Table 27: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units). 46
Table 28: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 29: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 47
Table 30: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 48
Table 31: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 48
Table 32: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 48
Table 33: Latin America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Table 34: Latin America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 49
Table 35: Latin America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 49
Table 36: Western Europe Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units). 50
Table 37: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units) 51
Table 38: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 51
Table 39: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth)
Table 40: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 53
Table 41: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 53
Table 42: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 53
Table 43: Western Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 54
Table 44: Western Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 45: Western Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 54
Table 46: Eastern Europe Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units) 55
Table 47: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units). 56
Table 48: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 49: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth)
Table 50: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 58
Table 51: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 58
Table 52: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 58
Table 53: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Table 54: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 55: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 59
Table 56: Africa Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units). 60
Table 57: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units) 61
Table 58: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 61
Table 59: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 62
Table 60: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 63
Table 61: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 63
Table 62: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 63
Table 63: Africa Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 64
Table 64: Africa Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 64
Table 65: Africa Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 64
Table 66: The Middle East Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units). 65
Table 67: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units) 66
Table 68: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 66
Table 69: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth)
Table 70: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 68
Table 71: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 68
Table 72: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 68
Table 73: The Middle East Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Table 74: The Middle East Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share)
Table 75: The Middle East Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 69
Table 76: Asia Pacific Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Country (Units) 70
Table 77: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units). 71
Table 78: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) . 71
Table 79: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 72
Table 80: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 73
Table 81: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share). 73
Table 82: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth). 73
Table 83: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 74
Table 84: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% Market Share) 74
Table 85: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (% YoY Growth) 74

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 6
Exhibit 2: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 7
Exhibit 3: Two Year Phase 1 Deployment Scenario of Microcells. 16
Exhibit 4: One Year Phase 1 Deployment Scenario of Microcells. 17
Exhibit 5: Global Microcell Cumulative Penetration by MMPR (Units). 18
Exhibit 6: Global Microcell Cumulative Penetration by Region @ 10% MMPR (Units). 18
Exhibit 7: Global Microcell BTS Forecast 2013-2017, (% YoY Growth). 19
Exhibit 8: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2017 (Units). 22
Exhibit 9: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 23
Exhibit 10: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2017 (% Market Share) 23
Exhibit 11: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 25
Exhibit 12: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with LTE Microcells 27
Exhibit 13: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with WiFi Microcells 28
Exhibit 14: Heterogeneous Macrocell vs. Microcell Network Topology with LTE+WiFi Microcells 29
Exhibit 15: Glasgow, Scotland City Map 32
Exhibit 16: Vodafone UK Glasgow, Scotland Macrocell Coverage Sites (Enlarged Area). 33
Exhibit 17: Vodafone UK Glasgow, Scotland Blanket Microcell Coverage (Enlarged Area). 34
Exhibit 18: Vodafone UK Glasgow, Scotland Fill In Microcell Coverage (Enlarged Area). 35
Exhibit 19: Vodafone UK Glasgow, Scotland Strategic Microcell Coverage (Enlarged Area) 36
Exhibit 20: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Region, 2014 (Units). 39
Exhibit 21: Global Microcell BTS Forecast by Region, 2017 (Units). 39
Exhibit 22: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units). 42
Exhibit 23: North America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 43
Exhibit 24: North America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Exhibit 25: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) 47
Exhibit 26: Latin America Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 48
Exhibit 27: Latin America Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars)
Exhibit 28: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) 52
Exhibit 29: Western Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 53
Exhibit 30: Western Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 54
Exhibit 31: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units). 57
Exhibit 32: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 58
Exhibit 33: Eastern Europe Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 59
Exhibit 34: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2015 (Units). 62
Exhibit 35: Africa Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 63
Exhibit 36: Africa Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 64
Exhibit 37: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units). 67
Exhibit 38: The Middle East Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units) 68
Exhibit 39: The Middle East Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 69
Exhibit 40: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units). 72
Exhibit 41: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Units). 73
Exhibit 42: Asia Pacific Microcell BTS Revenue Forecast by Air Interface, 2013-2017 (Millions of Dollars) 74

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